Everything else is ready: study the parts, the key terms and the quiz below.
Selective Reporting and Survivorship
Recognise a claim selected because it looked strong, and a sample that includes only cases that survived the process of being observed.
In this lesson6 parts
- 01Set the decision before seeing clicks
- 02Generate and report all eight outcomes
- 03Repeat the same search
- 04Inspect who remains at follow-up
- 05Decide what must be reported
- 06Reproduce and challenge
Key terms
The words this lesson introduces, each in one line. The module’s glossary collects them all.
- selective reporting
- Showing a result because it looked favorable while hiding the search that selected it.
- winner's curse
- A selected maximum tends to overstate the underlying performance of identical candidates.
- follow-up
- A later observation of the originally included units.
- intersection
- Units meeting both stated conditions, such as clicked earlier and active at follow-up.
- survivorship
- Analyzing only units that remain observable after a selection process.
- guardrail metric
- A predeclared outcome checked for possible harm while pursuing the primary goal, measured on everyone assigned.
- early stopping (narration)
- Ending a test because of the results seen so far, which makes the stopping time part of the search.
Quiz 5 questions
Your first pick on each question is the one that counts, and a right one earns a coin. Getting one wrong here is how the lesson sticks.
Practice
Problems to solve in your own notebook. Each states the problem, not the steps: working out the steps is the exercise. Level A applies the lesson, B combines it with earlier ones, C stretches it.
The self-checking notebook for this lesson is Selective reporting and survivorship.
Common mistakes
What you will see when it goes wrong, why it happens, and the fix.
Where it’s used
Where this lesson’s ideas turn up in real work.