Everything else is ready: study the parts, the key terms and the quiz below.
What the Evidence Can Claim
Separate description, prediction and causal effect in a real-world report.
In this lesson5 parts
- 01A rise and a claim are different things
- 02Derive the observation and expose its limit
- 03Separate prediction from intervention
- 04Run a clearly labelled teaching simulation
- 05Match each claim to its evidence
Key terms
The words this lesson introduces, each in one line. The module’s glossary collects them all.
- observed outcome
- A value recorded or computed from the declared source rows.
- before/after comparison
- A measured difference across two time windows.
- causal effect
- An outcome difference attributable to an intervention under a valid comparison.
- prediction question (narration)
- Whether past values help forecast new cases, evaluated on cases kept out of model fitting.
- random assignment
- Using chance to allocate units to comparison groups.
- assignment unit
- The entity randomized and followed for the outcome: a customer, not an invoice.
- control
- The comparison condition without the proposed intervention.
- treatment
- The condition receiving the proposed intervention.
- binary outcome
- An outcome recorded as one of two declared values, such as purchase or no purchase in a fixed period.
- treatment effect
- An outcome difference attributable to treatment under a valid comparison.
- uncertainty
- How much an estimate may vary across comparable samples.
- practical effect size
- The magnitude relevant to the decision.
Quiz 5 questions
Your first pick on each question is the one that counts, and a right one earns a coin. Getting one wrong here is how the lesson sticks.
Practice
Problems to solve in your own notebook. Each states the problem, not the steps: working out the steps is the exercise. Level A applies the lesson, B combines it with earlier ones, C stretches it.
The self-checking notebook for this lesson is What the evidence can claim.
Common mistakes
What you will see when it goes wrong, why it happens, and the fix.
Where it’s used
Where this lesson’s ideas turn up in real work.